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Bet365 Sport Slashes Labour Election Odds After Boris Barely Backed

Boris Johnson’s leadership vote has had a significant impact on the betting for the next Tory leader, Prime Minister and General Election.

You may, or may not, be aware that alongside the myriad of different sports betting options available to you with bet365 Sport, you can also bet on a number of non-sports too.

And in amongst the betting for items such as the BBC Sports Personality of the Year, who will win a variety of different TV Shows and such like, you will find that there is a thriving betting market available on politics.

Now, I know what you are thinking, politics is hardly the most exciting subject matter and you do have to be a fan of longer-term betting as you can place a bet on politics that may not be decided until many months, or even years later.

But after what has been a dramatic week in British politics, there’s some intriguing changes in the betting markets over the last couple of days that may tempt people into having a wager.

What Has Happened In UK Politics This Week?

After Partygate and a catalogue of misjudgements from the Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the Conservative 1922 Committee received enough letters stating that MP’s had no confidence in the Prime Minister to trigger a vote on his leadership.

That vote was taken on Monday night and while the Prime Minister won the vote by 211 votes to 148, the scale of dissent against the Prime Minister, mainly from back bench Tory MPs, means that Johnson’s support within the party has dwindled massively since he led the party to success in the last General Election.

Indeed, when Theresa May faced a vote of no confidence during her tenure as Prime Minister, she landed a wider margin of victory in her vote, but was still out of office within six months as her position became untenable.

Johnson’s position is more precarious after a series of scandals and after he became the first sitting British Prime Minister to commit a crime when he was fined by the police for breaking his own rules set up during lockdown.

The PM has promised to ‘bash on’ in the role for the time being, but the lack of support across the party leaves him very vulnerable and this has led to some swinging changes in the politics betting markets.

How Have The Politics Betting Markets Shifted At Bet365?

There have been a number of changes in different markets at bet365 since the result of Monday’s vote.

  • Next Leader Of The Conservative Party

First up, there is the market for who will eventually succeed Boris Johnson as the next Conservative Party leader. Given his less than convincing victory in the vote, there is a real feeling that a change in leadership, and therefore Prime Minister, could be in the pipeline.

One of Mr Johnson’s most outspoken critics, former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, has seen his odds slashed from 11/2 down to 4/1 and he is the new favourite to succeed Boris Johnson when he does step down.

Two other MPs have seen their odds slashed too, with Penny Mordaunt the 11/2 second favourite in the market and Liz Truss, who has been enjoying a rise in popularity, also backed in to 6/1.

However, the man many pundits saw as being the natural successor to Johnson, Chancellor Rishi Sunak, has seen his odds drift quite considerably out to 8/1.

That is largely down to issues regarding his wife’s tax status and the general public feeling a little betrayed by the hike in tax and national insurance, while in the middle of the worst cost of living crisis in living memory.

Other names amongst the shorter priced options to be next Conservative leader include Tom Tugendhat (13/2), Ben Wallace (8/1), Nadhim Zahawi (10/1), Sajid Javid (14/1), Lord David Frost (16/1), Michael Gove (18/1) and Dominic Raab 25/1.

  • Next British Prime Minister

We have also seen a somewhat seismic shift in the market for who will be the next British Prime Minister.

Around a year ago, Rishi Sunak was one of the most popular names for this market, but the issues we mentioned above have seen his odds drift out to 8/1 to be the next incumbent at No 10 Downing Street.

Jeremy Hunt is the best priced Conservative option at 6/1, with Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt both 15/2, Liz Truss at 8/1 alongside Rishi Sunak, while Ben Wallace is 10/1.

However, in a warning to Conservative party leaders, the favourite to be the next British Prime minister is Labour party leader Sir Keir Starmer whose odds have fallen considerably to 9/2 in the wake of all the Tory Party scandals and revelations.

That means that there has been plenty of money for the Labour leader over the last few weeks and you can bet that the Conservative party leaders will be well aware at how these changing market values can reflect wider public opinion.

Who Wins The Next General Election?

The other big change in betting has come in the market for who will win the next General Election.

It’s bad news for the Liberal Democrats, who are an 80/1 chance, while any other party is rated as a 300/1 chance outside of Labour and the Conservatives.

Given that the Conservatives built such a large majority at the last election, it is shocking to see that they are now 4/5 to win another term in office, a huge drift in price compared to their odds just a year or so ago.

In contrast, Labours odds of victory have shortened down to even money, suggesting that the next election may well be a much closer contest than the last.

However, I would offer some sage advice to punters thinking of trying to double their money with a bet on a Labour victory in the next election.

First off, we have seen in several recent elections that polls prior to the elections have tended to overstate Labour’s support, especially within those more marginal Tory seats, and those polls have tended to be somewhat inaccurate when the votes are tallied up.

Secondly, with the SNP now enjoying support across the board in Scotland, those seats, which more often than not previously went to Labour candidates, are not likely to be won back by Labour any time soon.

That means a Labour victory in the election is, in my view, very unlikely.

What is more possible, is that the Conservatives would win the election in terms of the number of seats they win, but not land an overall majority, which would see us with a hung parliament once again.

In that case, Labour could partner up with the SNP to perhaps take control of government, as the Tories are not likely to find too many parties to join up with them to govern once again.

As such, this means rather than bet on the Labour victory here, a bet on Keir Starmer being the next Prime Minister may well be a better bet if you want to back Labour in any of these markets.

Of course, a week is a long time in politics and things can change a great deal in a very short space of time, as we have seen this week. However, if you like long term bets, then the political markets at bet365 Sport offer some great value betting for those interested.

Ian John

Working my way though the UK's top online poker sites (and some of the ones near the bottom as well) to bring you a first-hand take on the absolute best choices for online poker players from the UK.

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