Euro 2024 Qualifiers Start – What Are The Chances Of The Four Home Nations Qualifying?

This week, on Thursday to be exact, the qualifying competition for the European Championships 2024 in Germany will begin.

53 of Europe’s top teams will battle it out to be one of the 23 teams to join Germany, as hosts, in the latest incarnation of the tournament.

Somewhat unusually, the last game of the 2020 European Championships will also be one of the first games of this qualifying campaign.

That is because the reigning champions Italy, host England in Naples on Thursday night in one of the opening matches in Group C.

Over a series of ten matchdays, all of which will be double-headers, from March through to November 2023, the group stage qualification competition will be completed this year.

And that means the Home Nations, not just England, will all be hoping that they can land a spot in the finals in the Summer of 2024.

Latest Euro 2024 Winner Odds With Bet365

Bet365 Sport is already offering odds on which team will win the tournament, with Germany and France the joint-favourites (11/2) and England (7-1) narrow third favourites.

However, the odds drift markedly for the other home Nations with Wales rated the next best chance but at odds of 80/1.

Scotland, who have been drawn in a tough group, are 150/1, while Northern Ireland are a huge 400/1 outside bet.

Let’s now take a quick look at how the ten groups have been drawn for qualifying before we take a closer look at the full qualifying campaign for the four Home Nations.

European Championships 2024 – Qualification Campaign

The full list of the ten groups for Euro 2024 qualifying are outlined below. Home Nations are marked in bold.

Group A

• Spain
• Scotland
• Norway
• Georgia
• Cyprus

Group B

• Netherlands
• France
• Republic of Ireland
• Greece
• Gibraltar

Group C

• Italy
• England
• Ukraine
• North Macedonia
• Malta

Group D

• Croatia
• Wales
• Armenia
• Turkey
• Latvia

Group E

• Poland
• Czech Republic
• Albania
• Faroe Islands
• Moldova

Group F

• Belgium
• Austria
• Sweden
• Azerbaijan
• Estonia

Group G

• Hungary
• Serbia
• Montenegro
• Bulgaria
• Lithuania

Group H

• Denmark
• Finland
• Slovenia
• Kazakhstan
• Northern Ireland
• San Marino

Group I

• Switzerland
• Israel
• Romania
• Kosovo
• Belarus
• Andorra

Group J

• Portugal
• Bosnia-Herzegovina
• Iceland
• Luxembourg
• Slovakia
• Liechtenstein

What Are The Home Nations Chances?

Please note – Friendly games, not part of qualifying, are highlighted in italics.

Group A – Scotland

• Spain
• Scotland
• Norway
• Georgia
• Cyprus

The draw wasn’t too kind to the Scots, with a new look Spain looking strong and Norway, buoyed by the talents of Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard, also starting to look very dangerous.

Trips to Georgia and Cyprus are never easy either which makes this a very tricky group for the Scots to qualify from.

Scotland’s Fixtures

• Matchday 1 – v Cyprus (H) – 25^th March – 2pm
• Matchday 2 – v Spain (H) – 28^th March – 7.45pm
• Matchday 3 – v Norway (A) – 17^th June – 5pm
• Matchday 4 – v Georgia (H) – 20^th June – 7.45pm
• Matchday 5 – v Cyprus (A) – 8^th Sept – 7.45pm
• Matchday 6 – v England (H) – 12^th Sept – 7.45pm
• Matchday 7 –  v Spain (A) – 12^th Oct – 7.45pm
• Matchday 8 – v Opponent to be confirmed – TBC – TBC
• Matchday 9 – v Georgia (A) – 16^th Nov – 5pm
• Matchday 10 – v Norway (H) – 19^th Nov – 7.45pm

Chances of qualifying? – 30/70

Scotland must win their home games (bar the Spain one) and also pick up at least 5-6 points on the road against their main rivals if they are to qualify from this group and I fear that this may be beyond them.

However, the Scots are well ranked for the Playoffs in March 2024 and that may well offer them a shot at one of the three final places in the finals in the summer.

Group C – England

• Italy
• England
• Ukraine
• North Macedonia
• Malta

Gareth Southgate’s team will bemoan the draw for the tournament which hands the Three Lions a renewal of their rival with Italy, but also two more tough opponents.

Ukraine will certainly have popular support on their side while North Macedonia knocked Italy out of World Cup qualifying and both these teams will be tough opponents, especially away from home. That said, England should be confident of qualifying first or second in the group.

England’s Fixtures

• Matchday 1 – v Italy (A) – 23^rd March. – 7.45pm
• Matchday 2 – v Ukraine (H) – 26^th March – 5pm
• Matchday 3 – v Malta (A) – 16^th June – 7.45pm
• Matchday 4 – v North Macedonia (H) – 19^th June – 7.45pm
• Matchday 5 – v Ukraine (A) – 9^th Sept – 5pm
• Matchday 6 – v Scotland (A) – 12^th Sept – 7.45pm
• Matchday 7 – v Australia (H) – 13^th Oct – 7.45pm
• Matchday 8 – v Italy (H) – 17^th Oct – 7.45pm
• Matchday 9 – v Malta (H) – 17^th Nov – 7.45pm
• Matchday 10 – v North Macedonia (A) – 20^th Nov – 7.45pm

Chances of qualifying – 80/20

England don’t usually have too many problems in qualifiers these days, but this is a tougher group than usual and their Nations League performances, which saw them relegated from Nations League A, is a concern here.

That said, England have more than enough quality to not just qualify but win the group but to do that they are going to need to beat Italy at least once.

That said, the Three Lions should finish 1^st or 2^nd to make it to Germany.

Group D – Wales

• Croatia
• Wales
• Armenia
• Turkey
• Latvia

Without the services of the now retired Gareth Bale, Wales task to qualify is significantly harder, especially in a group that contains World Cup semifinalists Croatia.

In addition, the emerging Turkey are a real threat in this group, while Armenia can be a very tricky team to play, especially away from home, making this a tough group for the Dragons.

Wales’ Fixtures

• Matchday 1 – v Croatia (A) – 25^th March – 7.45pm
• Matchday 2 – v Latvia (H) – 28^th March – 7.45pm
• Matchday 3 – v Armenia (H) – 16^th June – 7.45pm
• Matchday 4 – v Turkey (A) – 19^th June – 7.45pm
• Matchday 5 – v Opponent to be confirmed – 8^th Sept – TBC
• Matchday 6 – v Latvia (A) – 11^th Sept – 7.45pm
• Matchday 7 – v Gibraltar (H) – 11^th Oct – TBC
• Matchday 8 – v Croatia (H) – 15^th Oct – 7.45pm
• Matchday 9 – v Armenia (A) – 18^th Nov – 2pm
• Matchday 10 – v Turkey (H) – 21^st Nov – 7.45pm

Chances of Qualifying – 30/70

Without Gareth Bale, I’d drop Wales’ chance of qualifying from 50/50 to 30/70, simply because of Bale’s absence and the emergence of Turkey as a real threat in the last couple of years.

Croatia are the class act in this group, but I don’t rank Turkey too far behind them, and with Armenia and Latvia offering tricky away days, Wales are going to have to be at their best to finish in the top two here.

However, they are in with a chance of a playoff spot if they don’t qualify here, and that may be an alternative way to qualify for the Welsh.

Group H – Northern Ireland

• Denmark
• Finland
• Slovenia
• Kazakhstan
• Northern Ireland
• San Marino

Denmark will likely run away with this group, but Northern Ireland will feel that against Finland, Slovenia and Kazakhstan, they could be the team to surprise a few and finish second in the group, even if they are the outsiders at present.

Much will depend on how they perform in their away games, but with Michael O’Neill back in charge, anything is possible for the Green and Whites.

Northern Ireland’s Fixtures

• Matchday 1 – v San Marino (A) – 23^rd March – 7.45pm
• Matchday 2 – v Finland (H) –  26^th March – 7.45pm
• Matchday 3 – v Denmark (A) – 16^th June – 7.45pm
• Matchday 4 – v Kazakhstan (H) – 19^th June  – 7.45pm
• Matchday 5 – v Slovenia (A) – 7^th Sept – 7.45pm
• Matchday 6 – v Kazakhstan (A) – 10^th Sept – 2pm
• Matchday 7 – v San Marino (H) – 14^th Oct – 2pm
• Matchday 8 – v Slovenia (H) – 17^th Oct – 7.45pm
• Matchday 9 – v Finland (A) – 17^th Nov – 5pm
• Matchday 10 – v Denmark (H) – 20^th Nov – 7.45pm

Chances of Qualifying – 35/65

I think it is fair to say that Denmark will win this group easily, but Northern Ireland should feel confident that they can get results against any of the other teams in this group.

If they can be strong at home and pick up some key results on the road, then the Northern Irish team could spring a surprise here and lock up second spot in the group.

It won’t be easy, but they’ve done it before and could do it again.

The action for the Euro 2024 qualifiers gets underway on Thursday night so remember to tune in to see how all your bets and how each of the Home Nations performs!